If you are buying a home, coming to the end of a fixed rate deal or thinking about remortgaging in 2026, the mortgage market right now is more unpredictable than most borrowers were expecting at the start of the year. At Renshaw Mortgage Solutions we are speaking to clients across Nottinghamshire and Derbyshire every day about what is happening to rates and what the right strategy is for their individual circumstances. This article explains where things stand, what is driving the current situation, and what practical steps are worth considering.
Why Mortgage Rates Have Risen in 2026
At the start of 2026 there were genuine reasons for optimism. Inflation had slowed, the Bank of England had cut the base rate in December 2025, and average fixed mortgage rates had fallen below 5% for many products. Two further base rate cuts were widely anticipated during 2026, which was expected to push mortgage rates lower still.
That picture changed significantly from late February 2026 following geopolitical developments in the Middle East. The resulting uncertainty pushed up swap rates — the wholesale borrowing costs that lenders use to price fixed rate mortgages — rapidly and significantly. By mid-May, average two-year fixed rates had risen from around 4.85% to approximately 5.75%, and average five-year fixed rates had moved from around 4.94% to approximately 5.67%. That is a meaningful increase in the cost of borrowing in a short space of time.
The Bank of England has held the base rate at 3.75% throughout its last three meetings, with rate cuts now looking unlikely until at least 2027 according to several economic forecasters. Some economists have suggested rates could even rise modestly if inflation picks up further as a result of higher energy costs.
What This Means for Fixed vs Variable Rate Mortgages
The rapid rise in fixed rates has changed borrower behaviour noticeably. More people are now considering shorter-term fixed deals — two-year fixes rather than five-year — in the hope that rates will have come down by the time they come to remortgage. Others are looking at tracker and variable rate mortgages, which have risen far less sharply than fixed rates since the geopolitical uncertainty began.
This is a genuinely difficult decision and one that depends heavily on your individual circumstances. A tracker mortgage offers a lower starting rate but passes the risk of future base rate changes directly onto you as the borrower. A fixed rate gives you certainty over what you will pay for the duration of the deal, regardless of what happens to rates in the wider market. In the current environment — where rates could move in either direction — the case for fixing is primarily about peace of mind and budgetary certainty rather than necessarily getting the cheapest rate.
One option worth knowing about is locking in a fixed rate deal up to six months before your current deal expires, under the FCA’s mortgage charter framework. This allows you to secure a rate now and then switch to a more competitive deal later if rates fall — without losing the security of having something confirmed. Our advisers can walk you through how this works in practice for your specific situation.
Should You Fix Now or Wait?
This is the question we are asked most frequently right now. The honest answer is that nobody — not economists, not lenders, not the Bank of England — can say with certainty which direction rates will move from here. What we can say is that sitting on a Standard Variable Rate while you wait for fixed rates to fall is expensive. Average SVRs are currently around 7%, which is significantly higher than the fixed rate alternatives currently available. Every month on an SVR is costing more than it needs to.
If your fixed rate is expiring in the next six months, the most sensible approach in most cases is to act rather than wait — either locking in a fixed deal now or exploring a tracker as an interim option. If your fixed rate has already expired and you are on your lender’s SVR, the case for switching is even more compelling.
What About Buy to Let Mortgages?
Buy to let mortgage rates have risen significantly since the start of the Middle East conflict. Average two-year buy to let fixed rates moved from around 4.65% in early March to approximately 5.35% by mid-May. The number of buy to let products available to landlords has also fallen, reducing choice.
Landlords are also navigating several other changes simultaneously — the Renters’ Rights Act came into force on 1 May 2026, new EPC requirements will require properties to reach a C rating by October 2030, and changes to mortgage interest tax relief and stamp duty surcharges introduced in the 2025 Autumn Budget take effect in April 2027. For landlords with mortgages coming up for renewal, taking specialist advice on the best structure for their portfolio in this environment is particularly important. Our advisers work with landlords across Nottinghamshire and Derbyshire regularly and understand the specific challenges of the current buy to let market.
Is It Worth Overpaying Your Mortgage?
If you are currently on a low fixed rate deal that has not yet expired, overpaying your mortgage can be a sensible way to reduce your outstanding balance before you remortgage at a higher rate. The compounding effect of even modest overpayments can meaningfully reduce the interest you pay over the life of the loan and shorten the term. Most fixed rate deals allow overpayments of up to 10% of the outstanding balance per year without an early repayment charge — check your terms before making any overpayment.
The calculation of whether to overpay or keep savings elsewhere depends on the interest rate you are paying versus the rate you could earn on savings. Our advisers can help you work through this as part of a broader review of your mortgage arrangements.
What Support Is Available If You Are Struggling?
If you are finding your mortgage repayments difficult to manage, it is important to speak to your lender as early as possible. Under the mortgage charter that the vast majority of UK lenders have signed up to, borrowers in difficulty can make a temporary change to their mortgage — such as switching to interest-only payments or extending the term — for up to six months to reduce their monthly outgoings. There is also a 12-month delay before repossession proceedings can begin for missed payments.
These provisions exist to provide breathing space rather than a permanent solution, but they are worth knowing about if your circumstances change. Speaking to an independent mortgage adviser before things become critical gives you more options than waiting until you are already in difficulty.
Speaking to a Mortgage Adviser in Nottinghamshire or Derbyshire
The current mortgage market is genuinely complex and the right decision depends entirely on your individual circumstances — your current deal, when it expires, your loan-to-value ratio, your employment situation and your financial goals. Generic advice about what rates are doing nationally is useful context but it is not a substitute for advice tailored to your specific position.
At Renshaw Mortgage Solutions we are independent, whole-of-market advisers. We are not tied to any lender and have no financial incentive to recommend one product over another. Our only interest is finding the right mortgage for your circumstances from across the full market. Our initial advice is always free and there is no obligation to proceed.
If you have a mortgage deal expiring in the next six months, if you are on a Standard Variable Rate, or if you simply want to understand your options in the current market, call us on 01773 861050 or get in touch via our contact page to speak to one of our advisers today.
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